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Poll tracking has attempted to learn lessons from 2016 ahead of this year’s ballot, with organisations focussed on in-depth analysis which can reliably predict the results. Joe Biden is currently flying high, with most polls now forecasting a result overwhelmingly in his favour. But they may end up underestimating voters, who could deliver another shock according to recent polling.
Polling has given Mr Biden a comprehensive lead over Mr Trump, and some organisations have assigned him a double-digit advantage just over a month away from the election.
The results seem cut and dry, but not immune to change in the next 50 days, and one poll has identified a group which could subvert the current consensus.
One survey has found voter opinion stacked in favour of the incumbent president.
Conducted by Monmouth University between September 3 and 8, the poll shows a majority believe he will take the election this year, thanks to “secret” Republicans.
Monmouth University found 48 percent of people believed the president would win this year, compared to just 43 in Mr Biden’s favour.
A further 55 percent of people surveyed said they believed vert in their community secretly supported Mr Trump.
Three in ten in the same poll said they believed secret Democrat supporters were lurking in the wings.
In a statement, Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray said voter expectations have proved wrong in the past.
He said: “Of course, most voters believed that Clinton was going to win four years ago and they accepted the different outcome.
“But the reasons why voters think Trump will win again suggest that some may not accept this year’s result if he loses.”
Mr Murray added a secret vote would also likely fail to materialise based on past experiences.
He said: “Look, we are not asking this question as some backdoor way to tap into a secret Trump vote that the polls are missing.”
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“We have plenty of evidence that there was no measurable secret vote in 2016 or this year either.
“However, voters’ belief that a secret Trump vote does exist is a very real phenomenon we need to acknowledge.
“If this expected vote does not materialise on Election Day, some Democrats will be pleasantly surprised, and some Republicans will be shocked.”
The latter part of the Monmouth poll emerged as an outlier, as other results fell in line with the national consensus.
The same survey reported a much wider lead amongst registered voters than likely voters.
Mr Biden holds a nine-point lead over his opponent in the former category, with a 51 percent lead to Mr Trump’s 42 percent.
The Democrat nominee holds the same lead amongst likely voters, but just seven points ahead.
The incumbent holds the favour of 44 percent of likely voters.
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