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Donald Trump is hoping to win a second term as President for the Republicans in the US presidential election this week. But according to the latest polls, his Democrat rival Joe Biden is currently leading and is on course to be America’s next President. Express.co.uk has gathered exclusive data on what the bookmakers think will happen when America heads to the polls on November 3.
According to the latest FiveThirtyEight poll on November 2, Joe Biden is “clearly favoured” to win the next US election.
Mr Biden is currently forecast to win 53.4 percent of the popular vote, while Mr Trump is forecast to win 45.4 percent.
With 270 electoral college votes needed to win the election, as of November 2, FiveThirtyEight polls show Mr Biden is forecast to win 350 electoral college votes, while Mr Trump is predicted to win 188 electoral college votes.
Bookmakers Betfair has launched a swing-o-meter tool for the US election, and currently it predicts Mr Biden as the favourite with odds of 65 percent.
The bookmakers are also forecasting a win for Mr Biden in Tuesday’s election, predicting 305 electoral college votes to Mr Trump’s 233.
Betfair spokesperson Darren Hughes said: “With just a day to go before Americans take to the polls, the betting odds for the race to the White House have remained solid, with Biden holding out as the strong 8/15 (65 percent) favourite, to the incumbent Trump’s 15/8 (35 percent).
“Trump has closed the gap somewhat- this day last week, his odds were 2/1 (31 percent), and this movement bucks the trend of all previous elections, with the election favourite usually the one to see their odds improve in the final days of a campaign.
“For all Trump’s improvement, however, Biden remains the strong favourite. It’s almost hard to believe that the former VP was 99/1 in February, when it looked unlikely that he would even be nominated to run for office, but he is now firmly in the drivers’ seat in this election.”
The Betfair swing-o-meter for the US election has also determined the latest odds for key ‘swing states’ in this election, also known as battleground states, which have proven crucial to previous US election wins.
Despite Trump not winning the popular vote in 2016, under the US electoral college system his win in swing states like Pennsylvania proved crucial to his victory four years ago.
Mr Hughes added: “From the odds on the Betfair Exchange, there are 11 clear swing states – determined by odds changes since the start of 2020.
“Swing states are states that have historically swung between voting Democrat and Republican, with no discernible pattern.
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“Unlike states like Texas and New York, which are traditional Republican and Democrat states, swing states are often unpredictable, and therefore are often viewed as the most important states in an election.”
In the often hotly-contested state of Florida, Mr Trump is “narrowly” faring better than Mr Biden, according to Betfair analysis.
Mr Hughes stated: “Of those, Florida is the closest in the betting. After winning it in 2016, the Sunshine State is a must-win yet again for Trump, and the odds have narrowly swung in his favour.
“The Republicans have been as short as 10/11, in May, and as big as 6/4, in September, to win there.
“The Democrats were the narrow favourites in early October, but as early voting figures have been released, Trump’s odds have steadily improved.
“While early voting figures give Biden a lead, the expected Trump vote on the day is expected to be very strong, and experts say Biden’s lead isn’t enough to hang on here.
“Current odds have Trump as an 8/11 (57 percent) chance to win here, in a state he simply cannot afford to lose.”
Both candidates will be keen to scoop votes in other contested states such as Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Mr Hughes said: “Another state Trump has been targeting in recent weeks is Nevada. The Silver State has swung blue in the last three elections, but with the pandemic forcing the state’s primary income driver, the gaming industry, to close down, Trump has leveraged his re-opening plan to appeal to voters there, with a view within his camp that the state is up for grabs, and the odds have moved to reflect this.
“The Democrats were as short as 1/5 (84 percent) to win this state in July, but heavy campaigning from Trump saw his odds improve markedly, and last week he was as short as 9/4 (30 percent) to flip this steady blue state.
“However, the odds have changed once again in recent days, and Trump’s odds currently stand at 4/1 (20 percent), with it looking less and less likely that these six EC votes will come his way.
“North Carolina is also being closely contested on the east coast, and is another state Trump simply has to win if he wants to maintain control of the White House, and there is potentially some good news for him here.
“Having flip-flopped with the Democrats all summer, with both parties being the favourite at various times to win the state, Biden’s odds improved sharply in early October to 4/5 (55 percent), in what was a hammer blow to Trump.
“However, in the last 48 hours, Trump’s odds have improved to 21/20 (48 percent), and this crucial swing-state is now a coin flip according to Betfair Exchange punters.
“Perhaps the most important state of all is Pennsylvania- Trump has to win this blue-collar state to win the election, and while Biden can just about absorb a loss here, it is the knock-on effect of the likely votes in neighbouring Michigan and Wisconsin that could harm the current election favourite, with the three states often mirroring each other.
“Biden has been the strong favourite here for most of the year, and although his 4/9 (69 percent) odds from July have gotten slightly worse, his odds have improved from last week, where he was 4/7 (63 percent) and is now 1/2 (65 percent).
“Trump will need a miracle of sorts to turn things around, with the hope that Biden’s promise to move away from fossil fuels will harm his vote in the Oil State, which heavily depends on the industry for employment.”
Overall Betfair are currently predicting Joe Biden will win the election for the Democrats this year.
Mr Hughes concluded: “Based on current Betfair Exchange state betting odds, the prediction is that Biden will cruise to victory, in a relatively comfortable manner.
“Betfair Exchange odds project 305 Electoral College Votes, to Trump’s 233, which would see Joseph Robinette Biden confirmed as the 46th President of the United States of America.
“Trump could find claim victories on the east coast, in North Carolina and Florida, but it still wouldn’t be enough- Biden has a stranglehold on too many crucial swing states to be toppled unless there is a drastic change between now and tomorrow.”
The latest Betfair odds on key swing states:
- Arizona- GOP 5/4, Dems 4/5
- Florida- GOP 8/11, Dems 11/8
- Georgia- GOP 8/11, Dems 11/8.
- Iowa- GOP 2/5, Dems 5/2.
- Michigan- GOP 7/2, Dems 2/7
- Minnesota- GOP 7/2, Dems 2/7
- Nevada- GOP 4/1, Dems 1/4.
- North Carolina- GOP 21/20, 20/21
- Ohio- GOP 1/2, Dems 2/1.
- Pennsylvania- GOP 7/4, Dems 4/7.
- Texas- GOP 2/5, Dems 5/2.
- Wisconsin- GOP 7/2, Dems 2/7
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