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The survey of voters by the US President’s favourite pollsters gives him 48 percent ahead of his rival Joe Biden on 47 percent.
In the last days of the campaign the Democrat former vice president who has been dogged by corruption allegations surrounding his son Hunter which have, according to the poll, cut through with the electorate.
The last Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll gave the US President a two point lead and landed just after he went into hospital with coronavirus.
Significantly, the President has, according to the latest findings, maintained a four point lead of 49 percent to 45 percent in the key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
It means he is on course to easily win the electoral college by 326 to 212 votes against his Democrat rival in a result which would shock the world even more than his astonishing defeat of Hilary Clinton in 2016.
The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll has throughout the campaign been one of the few to predict a Trump victory since March.
This is because unlike other polls it only looks at people identifying as likely voters instead of just registered to vote and it has tried to identify the shy Trump vote.
According to this latest poll almost eight in ten (79 percent) of Trump supporters would not admit it to friends and family compared to 21 percent of Biden supporters.
With the race hotting up in the final days allegations that Mr Biden and his family are corrupt surrounding claims about his son Hunter’s business dealings with China and the Ukraine using family connections appear to have had cut through.
There was controversy when social media platforms including Twitter apparently attempted to filter out the stories surrounding Hunter Biden published by the New York Post.
But the row has, according to the poll, only helped to put the issue in the public consciousness more.
Asked who they thought was telling the truth about the Biden family allegations 57 percent chose businessman and former Biden associate Tony Bobulinski who has levelled accusations against the former vice President.
Meanwhile, 52 percent agreed that Mr Biden is “a corrupt politician” with 21 percent saying they are less likely to vote for him and 75 percent saying it makes no difference.
Asked if the allegations made him a national security risk, 54 percent agreed that it did.
The US President’s job approval rating it now at 52 percent which, according to the Democracy Institute director Patrick Basham, is now at “normal levels” to expect to be reelected.
And even after the Black Lives Matter protests, almost four in ten black voters approve of his presidency and 21 percent are prepared to vote for him.
Mr Trump’s two strongest issues among voters are still ranked the most important – the economy and law and order – both at 29 percent.
In comparison coronavirus, where the President’s approval rating is not as high, is fourth on 20 percent as the most important issue.
According to the findings 61 percent think Mr Trump will be better for the economy but only 45 percent approve of his handling of coronavirus while 49 percent disapprove.
Meanwhile, Mr Biden still comes a distant third when asked about who has had the most positive impact on the criminal justice system with 14 percent behind both Mr Trump and the celebrity Kim Kardashian both on 43 percent.
Mr Basham said: “Our final Democracy Institute poll shows President Donald Trump, the Republican standard bearer, holding a razor thin one-point national lead over his Democratic rival, former Vice President Joe Biden. This is a statistical tie that falls firmly within the poll’s margin of error.
“The election will not be decided by the popular vote, of course; instead, it will be decided within the battleground states located primarily in the nation’s Midwest and Sunbelt regions.
“The Republican’s vote is a very efficient one, as it was in 2016. This is the president’s Trump card.
“Trump’s voters are more evenly dispersed across the country than are Biden’s.
“Biden’s comparatively inefficient vote is likely to mirror Hillary Clinton’s from four years ago. Biden will do incredibly well in the heavily populated states of California, Illinois, New Jersey, and New York. In these states, and in others reliably painted a deep Democratic blue, he will rack up enormous margins of victory over Trump, providing him with the potential to score a national popular vote victory, yet probably depriving him of sufficient votes in Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida to turn Trump into a one-term president.”
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