Electoral college predictions: How are the different states voting?

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After a difficult year in the states, American’s are heading to the polls to elect their next president in possibly the most important US election in recent history. When the two candidates go head-to-head on Tuesday, November 3, they are not only fighting for the popular vote but also for seats in the USA’s Electoral College.

The party which gets the most votes in a state is assigned the seats for the EC as is proportional to its population – for example, California, the most populated state in the country, has more EC seats than any other state – with 55.

To become the next president, either candidate needs to win a majority go the 538 seats available – so the magic number to win is 270.

The system is highly criticised by some political commentators, particularly those on the blue side, as it means the election is usually played out in a small handful of swing states.

The relative value of seats per state is skewed across the system, with less populous states often overrepresented, meaning votes in that state count for more than others.

For example, Wyoming has one EC seat for every 193,000 people that live there, but California has one per 718,000 residents.

With one day to go, Mr Biden is nationally polling over his opponent Mr Trump – but a similar predication was made in the 2016 election when frontrunner Hillary Clinton lost to the current president.

Despite winning the popular vote, she did not manage to clinch the White House due to the EC seats system.

According to 270towin.com, which aggregates the ratings of nine organisations to come up with a consensus forecast for the election, the Democrats are currently on track to win 290 electoral college seats, whereas the incumbent is on track to win 163.

As of November 2, 270towin.com is predicting the following states will give their electoral college seats to the Republicans:

Alaska
Texas
Tennessee
Oklahoma
Louisiana
Missouri
Alabama
South Carolina
Kentucky
West Virginia
Kansas
Nebraska
North Dakota
South Dakota
Utah
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Indiana
Mississippi

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And to the Democrats:

California
Oregan
Washington
Nevada
Arizona
New Mexico
Colorado
New York
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Wisconsin
Illinois
Virginia
New Hampshire
Vermont
Massachusetts
Maine
Maryland
Minnesota
Michigan
New Jersey
Connecticut
Hawaii
Delaware
Rhode Island
Washington DC

States that are currently still a toss-up are:

Florida
Ohio
North Carolina
Georgia
Iowa

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