Conservatives 'suffering from degree of implosion' says Curtice
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Sir John Curtice, currently a Scottish political lecturer and commentator, said that the polls suggest Labour will overtake the Conservatives as the “clear lead” on the unionist vote in Scotland. He added the switch has less to do with any sort of “Labour revival” and more to do with the “implosion” of the Tory party following a continuous chain of scandals, including Boris Johnson’s Partygate fines and accusations of sexism.
Sir John told GB News that, should the polls prove accurate come the results of the May local elections, “tensions will be accentuated” on the union argument.
He said: “In Scotland, the Tories are defending a very high baseline. [Last year] was their best local election result since 1982.
“In 2017, they went on in the general election to put on their best parliamentary performance since, I think, 1983.
“But it so happens in all the polls in Scotland since Christmas, i.e. since Partygate, the Conservatives have been running behind Labour.
“Now this is not so much a sign of a Labour revival as it is the Tories suffering a degree of implosion.
“And if Labour perform in line with the polls, they still may only end a couple of points up on what they were on in the Scottish parliament elections last year.
“But it will matter because it means on the unionist side of the argument in Scotland, what has hitherto been a clear lead on the unionist side for the Conservatives since 2016 will switch to Labour.
“Tensions will then be accentuated as Labour say: ‘Well, hold on, we’re now the party that speaks for the union’.”
BallotBox polls suggest that Labour are set to overtake the Conservatives as the best of the rest party behind the Scottish National Party for the first time since 2016.
Labour are set to take home 22 percent of the vote, up four percent from last year’s local elections.
The Tories, meanwhile, are predicted to gain only 20 percent of the vote, down three percent on last year.
While the SNP are expected to receive around 33 percent of the vote, it is still a decrease of 7 points on last year.
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The latest independence polls propose that the Scottish public is still in favour of remaining part of the UK.
Just under half of those polled said they would want to stay in a union with the rest of the UK, while around 43 percent said they would like to be independent.
Despite the SNP dominating Scottish votes, they still fall behind the two major unionist parties behind them when combined together.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s handling of the pandemic will be seen as a vital element of voting trends.
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