Tories face relegation to fourth largest party in doomsday scenario

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A doomsday scenario based on the current poll of polls could see the Conservatives drop to the fourth-placed Parliamentary party with a mere 32 seats. The calculations based on all the recent polls carried out by the prediction website Electoral Calculus suggests the Tories under Rishi Sunak are heading to its worst-ever election result in political history.

The calculation used by Electoral Calculus includes the recent tracker poll by Techne UK for which saw Labour’s lead grow to 22 points last week.

According to the spread of possible seats in an election, the Conservatives are predicted to get 84 seats while Labour would have a 318 seat majority.

This would be much worse than the all-time low of 165 seats won by the Tories under John Major in 1997 when they were crushed by Tony Blair and Labour.

But, according to Electoral Calculus the range of possibilities could be much worse.

In the doomsday worst case scenario based on the polls, the Conservatives would be left with just 32 seats.

This would put them behind the Lib Dems on 34 and SNP 51 who in their best-case scenarios would likely be making gains from the Tories.

The prospect of a near wipeout has been seized on by allies of Boris Johnson, who has gone to ground since the Northern Ireland Brexit deal was published, as evidence he should be leading the party.

Lord Cruddas, who backed the petition to give members a vote on Mr Johnson’s leadership after MPs forced him to quit, said: “If this poll was reflected in GE Conservatives could be the fourth largest party behind Labour, Lib Dems, and SNP.

“Quite a relegation from our 80 seat majority and over 360 seat victory under Boris in 2019.”

This week, Tory MPs will be looking to see if the apparent success of a deal for Northern Ireland with the EU will help start the turnaround for the party.

However, some warn of a potential rebellion over the deal.

And this is compounded by concerns oger planned tax rises in the Budget and disastrous results in May’s local elections.

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