Labour election crisis: How many seats could Labour LOSE in local elections? Latest polls

Naga Munchetty says Labour ‘not a popular party at the moment’

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Nationwide elections are due to be held in a matter of days with all major political parties hoping they could make council gains. The May 6 elections will be the first real electoral test for new Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, whose predecessor Jeremy Corbyn faced a devastating defeat in the 2019 election.

Voters head to the polls on Thursday, May 6, across England, Scotland and Wales to cast their ballots in calm national, mayoral and Police and Crime Commissioner elections.

An estimated 28 million people will be eligible to head to the polls to vote in about 4,650 officials.

The elections in England are not related to parliament, but instead, decide who runs local councils which have the power over local services – with a total of 143 councils due to be decided on May 6.

Local elections are important as councils provide a wide variety of important services to their municipalities including the enforcement of federal, state and local laws in different communities.

The most important areas which are governed by local councils including public health, traffic, parking, animal management, social care, schools, housing, planning and waste collection.

Lesser-known responsibilities include licensing, business support, registrar services and pest control.

The May 6 ballot could see a lot of change on the local political level.

The 2016 local elections saw the Labour Party dealt a crushing blow, losing many seats.

However, the party retained some strongholds, but a new poll indicates the party could be on track to lose dozens of seats in the Red Wall council areas.

The YouGov poll found the Conservatives are likely to win several key marginal seats in Labour stronghold areas.

Overall, the YouGov poll showed the Tories are likely to benefit from the decline in support for UKIP, with projections indicating the party could gain 90 additional councillor seats.

The poll, conducted from April 16 to 28 and published on May 1, asked those living up and down the “Red Wall” whom they intend to support on May 6.

The survey found Labour is on track to lose 59 seats next week.

The current voting intention for May 6 is as follows:

  • Conservatives: 37 percent
  • Labour: 38 percent
  • Liberal Democrats: Six percent
  • Greens: Nine percent
  • Reform UK: Three percent
  • Others: Six percent.

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The change inviting intention from the 2016/2017 vote to now indicates a rise of 13 percent for the Tories, with a fall of four percent for the Labour Party.

YouGov made three projections: lower estimates, central estimates and upper estimates.

According to these figures, the Tories are on track to win an additional 69 as a minimum or potentially up to 122 additional council seats.

Meanwhile, Labour is on track to lose up to 88 seats, or as a minimum 35.

The seats Labour is predicted to lose to the Tories include Dudley, Northumberland and Derby.

Labour also looks likely to lose the former strongholds of Bury, Hyndburn and Lincoln, where projections are currently too close to all.

In addition, threatened majorities in Sheffield, Warrington and Wolverhampton are also at risk.

YouGov has projected each of the following largest parties after the vote on May 6:

  • Bolton: Conservative [from Labour]
  • Bradford: Labour [no change]
  • Burnley: Labour [no change]
  • Bury: Labour [no change]
  • Derby: Conservative [no change]
  • Doncaster: Labour [no change]
  • Dudley: Conservative [from Labour]
  • Durham: Labour [no change]
  • Hyndburn: Likely Labour
  • Kirklees: Labour [no change]
  • Lincoln: Leaning Labour
  • North East Lincolnshire: Conservative [no change]
  • Northumberland: Conservative [no change]
  • Rochdale: Labour [no change]
  • Sandwell: Labour [no change]
  • Sheffield: Labour [no change]
  • Wakefield: Labour [no change]
  • Warrington: Likely Labour
  • Wigan: Labour [no change]
  • Wolverhampton: Labour [no change].

The Politico poll pitches Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s approval ratings as higher than his disapproval rating at 53 percent in support of the PM as of April 26.

His disapproval rating at that time was 47 percent.

Throughout the latter part of 2020, Mr Johnson’s disapproval ratings overtook his approval ratings, but in late February, his approval ratings started to improve.

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